| 718 | 0 | 46 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
在气候变化等多因素影响下，城市洪涝灾害频发，对于超大城市而言，仅从对抗灾害的角度来构建城市洪涝防控体系难以完全奏效，将城市洪涝防治标准提升到极端灾害的级别也是不经济的，提升城市洪涝韧性成为超大城市应对极端暴雨洪涝灾害的重要方向。文章基于典型超大城市洪涝灾害调研与案例分析，从洪涝灾害防控的特殊复杂性、洪涝灾害链式放大效应、气候变化下的灾害不确定等方面梳理了超大城市洪涝灾害的基本特点，从风险普及、基层应对体系、就地应急措施和多维韧性建设方面剖析了超大城市洪涝韧性的主要不足，从预防和避险、感知和预警、联防联控、科技赋能等方面提出了超大城市洪涝韧性提升的基本策略，从洪涝灾害风险科普、构建大安全大应急框架、完善立体协同感知、强化精准预警叫应、强化灾害链阻断和加强洪涝智能化应对等方面提出了超大城市洪涝韧性提升的重要路径。研究成果从宏观上探析了我国超大城市洪涝韧性提升策略与路径，可为超大城市洪涝治理和韧性提升提供一定参考。
Abstract：Against the backdrop of climate change and other multifactorial influences,urban flood disasters are becoming increasingly frequent. For megacities,constructing an urban flood control system solely from the perspective of combating disasters is unlikely to be fully effective and it is also uneconomical to raise urban flood control standards to the level required for extreme disasters. Therefore,improving urban flood resilience has become a critical direction for megacities in addressing extreme rainstorm and flood events. Based on the investigation of flood disasters and case studies from typical megacities,this paper explores the basic characteristics of flood disasters in megacities,focusing on the unique complexity of flood disaster prevention and control,the chain amplification effect of flood disasters,and the uncertainty of disasters under climate change. It identifies key deficiencies in the flood resilience of megacities,such as the lack of risk awareness,inadequate grassroots response systems,insufficient on-site emergency measures,and weak multidimensional resilience frameworks. The paper proposes basic strategies to enhance flood resilience,including strengthening prevention and risk avoidance,improving flood detection and early warning systems,implementing joint prevention and control measures,and leveraging technological empowerment. It further suggests specific pathways for resilience enhancement,including popularizing flood disaster risk education,constructing a comprehensive safety and emergency framework,enhancing three-dimensional collaborative perception,improving precise early warning and response systems,strengthening disaster chain interruption measures,and promoting intelligent flood response systems. The research provides a macroscopic analysis of strategies and pathways for improving the flood resilience of megacities in China and offers valuable reference for flood control and resilience enhancement efforts in such cities.
[1] 李国英.进一步全面深化水利改革为推动水利高质量发展、保障我国水安全作出新的贡献——在2025年全国水利工作会议上的讲话[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(1):1-12.LI Guoying.Further comprehensively deepen water conservancy reform to promote high-quality development of water conservancy and safeguard national water security:a speech at the 2025 national water conservancy work conference[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(1):1-12.
[2] XIONG J,YANG Y,YANG L,et al.Asymmetric shifts in precipitation due to urbanization across global cities[J].Nature Communications,2025,16(1):5802-5802.
[3] 马坚泓.全面推进韧性安全城市建设坚决守牢超大城市安全底线[J].中国减灾，2024(1):20.MA Jianhong.Comprehensively Advancing Resilient and Safe City Construction,Resolutely Securing the Safety Bottom Line of Megacities[J].Disaster Reduction in China,2024(1):20.
[4] 宋晓猛，徐楠涛，董子然.变化环境下城市洪涝风险评估与调控策略[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(1):56-64,85.SONG Xiaomeng,XU Nantao,DONG Ziran.Risk assessment and control strategies of urban flooding under changing environments[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(1):56-64,85.
[5] 苑希民，兰卓青，王丽娜，等.极端天气城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害特征再分析及应对策略[J].水利学报，2024,55(11):1298-1308.YUAN Ximin,LAN Zhuoqing,WANG Lina,et al.Reanalysis of the characteristics of extreme rainstorm and flood disaster in urban areas and coping countermeasures[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2024,55(11):1298-1308.
[6] 陈颖冰，李兆永，李永坤，等.“23·7”特大暴雨山洪灾害调查分析——以房山区为例[J].北京水务，2023(6):1-5.CHEN Yingbing,LI Zhaoyong,LI Yongkun,et al.Analysis,thoughts and advice on the investigation of torrential flood in the “23·7” extreme rainstorm:a case study in Fangshan District[J].Beijing Water,2023(6):1-5.
[7] 孙晓英，叶冬冬，张建涛，等.北京市“23·7”极端强降雨灾后恢复重建关键问题及对策研究[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(11):22-28.SUN Xiaoying,YE Dongdong,ZHANG Jiantao,et al.Research on key issuesand measures of Beijing “23·7” extreme heavy rainfall disaster recovery and reconstruction planning[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(11):22-28.
[8] 程晓陶，俞茜.水利高质量发展转型中城市洪涝防治与韧性提升的探讨[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(11):1-11.CHENG Xiaotao,YU Xi.Discussion on urban flood prevention and resilience enhancement in the transformation of high-quality water conservancy development[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(11):1-11.
[9] 孔锋，龚靖愉.城市社区洪涝灾害韧性研究进展与展望[J].灾害学，2025,40(2):111-118,132.KONG Feng,GONG Jingyu.Progress and Prospects of Flood Resilience Research in Urban Communities[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2025,40(2):111-118,132.
[10] 乔明叶，周进.平原河网区“洪涝统筹”体系构建关键技术探讨[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(10):54-59.QIAO Mingye,ZHOU Jin.Discussion on key technology of flood planning system in plain river network area[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(10):54-59.
[11] KAISER A M R Z,AKTER F.From risk to resilience and sustainability:Addressing urban flash floods and waterlogging[J].Risk Sciences,2025:1100011-100011.
[12] 关威，高菲.超大城市面临的安全风险及国内外城市系统韧性建设案例借鉴研究[J].中国工程咨询，2021(10):51-56.GUAN Wei,GAO Fei.Research on Safety Risks Faced by Megacities and Case Studies of Urban System Resilience Building in Domestic and International Contexts[J].China Engineering Consultants,2021(10):51-56.
[13] LI J,ZOU Y,LI J,et al.Urban spatial,engineering and management resilience capacity enhancement from a flood safety perspective[J].Water-Energy Nexus,2024:7213-226.
[14] 容志.全面提升应对水安全风险的城市韧性[J].国家治理，2021(41):24-27.RONG Zhi.Comprehensively Enhancing Urban Resilience to Address Water Security Risks[J].Governance,2021(41):24-27.
[15] 胡庆芳，张建云，金君良，等.城镇化水平衡效应与城市洪涝韧性提升研究[J].中国工程科学，2024,26(6):131-139.HU Qingfang,ZHANG Jianyun,JIN Junliang,et al.Water Balance Effect of Urbanization and Countermeasures for Enhancing Urban Water Security Resilience[J].Strategic Study of CAE,2024,26(6):131-139.
[16] 陶希东.中国超大特大韧性城市建设：理论逻辑、实践探索与路径选择[J].南京社会科学，2025(7):65-73.TAO Xidong.Building Resilient Mega and Super-large Cities in China:Theoretical Logic,Practical Exploration and Pathway Choices[J].Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences,2025(7):65-73.
[17] 邝敏毅，邓兴栋，朱理铭，等.洪涝风险管控从空间总体规划向控规传导——广州的实践与探索[J].水利学报，2022,53(7):779-788,797.KUANG Minyi,DENG Xingdong,ZHU Liming,et al.Flood risk management transmission from spatial master planning to regulatory planning:Practice and exploration in Guangzhou[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2022,53(7):779-788,797.
[18] 卢陈，胡晓张，吴尧，等.深圳河流域2023年“9·7”极端特大暴雨分析及洪涝治理思考[J].中国防汛抗旱，2024,34(1):24-28.LU Chen,HU Xiaozhang,WU Yao,et al.Analysis of “9·7” extraordinary rainstorm in the Shenzhen River Watershed and thinking of flood strategies[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(1):24-28.
[19] RAUB K B,STEPENUCK K F,PANIKKAR B.Exploring the food-energy-water nexus approach to enhance coastal community resilience research and planning[J].Global Sustainability,2021,4(e21).
[20] THIEME M L,TICKNER D,GRILL G,et al.Navigating trade-offs between dams and river conservation[J].Global Sustainability,2021,4(e17).
[21] LIU N,ZHANG F.Urban green spaces and flood disaster management:toward sustainable urban design[J].Frontiers in Public Health,2025,13:1583978.
[22] 曹雪健，许金玉，戚友存.“三道防线”建设赋能城市洪水预报：内在机理和技术路径[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(8):27-30.CAO Xuejian,XU Jinyu,QI Youcun.“Three lines of defense”empowers urban flood forecasting:mechanisms and approaches[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(8):27-30.
[23] 中共中央办公厅.国务院办公厅关于进一步提升基层应急管理能力的意见[EB/OL](2024-10-08)[2025-7-16].https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202410/content_6978739.htm.General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Further Enhancing Emergency Management Capabilities at the Grassroots Level[EB/OL] (2024-10-08)[2025-7-16].https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202410/content_6978739.htm.
[24] RÖZER V,MEHRYAR S,SURMINSKI S.From managing risk to increasing resilience:a review on the development of urban flood resilience,its assessment and the implications for decision making[J].Environmental Research Letters,2022,17(12):123006.
[25] CHAN F.K S,WANG Z L,CHEN J N,et al.Selected global flood preparation and response lessons:implications for more resilient Chinese cities[J].Natural Hazards,2023,118(3):1767-1796.
[26] LOPES A C R,REZENDE O M,MIGUEZ M G.Urban resilience to floods in the context of the disaster risk management cycle:a literature review[J].Journal of Hydrology,2025,662:133827.
[27] AZADGAR A,NYKA L,SALATA S.Advancing Urban Flood Resilience:A Systematic review of urban flood risk mitigation model,research trends,and future directions[J].Land,2024,13(12):2138.
[28] 邹贤菊，张春桦，宋晓猛.2018年我国城市暴雨洪涝事件调查及思考[J].水利发展研究，2019,19(8):45-50,71.ZOU Xianju,ZHANG Chunye,SONG Xiaomeng.Investigation and Reflections on Urban Rainstorm and Flood Events in China in 2018[J].Water Resources Development Research,2019,19(8):45-50,71.
[29] 王慧敏，黄晶，刘高峰，等.大数据驱动的城市洪涝灾害风险感知与预警决策研究范式[J].工程管理科技前沿，2022,41(1):35-41.WANG Huimin,HUANG Jing,LIU Gaofeng,et al.Research Paradigm of Big Data Driven Urban Flood Disaster Risk Perception,Early Warning and Decision[J].Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management,2022,41(1):35-41.
[30] WU J H,WANG Z C,DONG J H,et al.Robust Runoff prediction with explainable artificial intelligence and meteorological variables from deep learning ensemble model[J].Water Resources Research,2023,59(9):e2023WR035676.
[31] 孙维亚，赵宇飞，刘昊，等.“人工智能在水利建设与管理中的应用”最新进展[J].水利建设与管理，2025(4):1-4.SUN Weiya,ZHAO Yufei,LIU Hao,et al.Latest Advances in the Application of Artificial Intelligence in Water Conservancy Construction and Management[J].Water Conservancy Construction and Management,2025(4):1-4.
[32] AKINSOJI A H,ADELODUN B,ADEYI Q,et al.Integrating Machine learning models with comprehensive data strategies and optimization techniques to enhance flood prediction accuracy:a review[J].Water Resources Management,2024,38(12):4735-4761.
[33] WANG Q,GU H Z,ZANG X Y,et al.Flood resilience in cities and urban agglomerations:a systematic review of hazard causes,assessment frameworks,and recovery strategies based on LLM tools[J].Natural Hazards,2025,121(11):12391-12426.
[34] 刘家宏，梅超，王佳，等.新形势下城市洪涝演变特征与联防联控技术研究[J].中国水利，2025(9):28-33.LIU Jiahong,MEI Chao,WANG Jia,et al.Research on the characteristics of urban flood combinations and joint prevention and control technologies under the new situation[J].China Water Resources,2025(9):28-33.
[35] 王浩.建立大安全大应急框架加强城市洪涝联防联控[J].中国减灾，2023(1):18-21.WANG Hao.Establishing a Comprehensive Safety and Emergency Framework to Strengthen Urban Flood and Waterlogging Joint Prevention and Control[J].Disaster Reduction in China,2023(1):18-21.
[36] 王刚，严登华，任明磊，等.生态建设对洪水要素过程影响研究进展[J].中国水土保持科学(中英文),2025,23(3):1-13.WANG Gang,YAN Denghua,REN Minglei,et al.Research progress in the impact of ecological construction on flood factor process[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,23(3):1-13.
[37] BUKHARI S A S,SHAFI I,AHMAD J,et al.Review of flood monitoring and prevention approaches:a data analytic perspective[J].Natural Hazards,2025,121(5):5103-5128.
[38] YOU J G,ZHU J,LI W L,et al.ROI-constrained visualization of flood scenes to improve perception efficiency[J].International Journal of Digital Earth,2023,16(1):3065-3084.
[39] 刘志雨，张同强.水旱灾害防御雨水情监测预报技术研究[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(1):48-55.LIU Zhiyu,ZHANG Tongqiang.Research on flood and drought disaster prevention and rainfall monitoring and forecasting technologies[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(1):48-55.
[40] GUO K H,GUAN M F,YAN H C.Utilising social media data to evaluate urban flood impact in data scarce cities[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2023,93:103780.
[41] 王凯，徐辉，贾鹏飞，等.统筹区域与城市的“精准适配”安全韧性规划方法探索[J].中国工程科学，2025,27(4):43-54.WANG Kai,XU Hui,JIA Pengfei,et al.A Precision Adaptation Resilience-Planning Methodology that Integrates Regions and Cities[J].Strategic Study of CAE,2025,27(4):43-54.
[42] 万海斌，罗鹏.浅谈洪涝灾害精准防控[J].中国水利，2021(23):11-14.WAN Haibin,LUO Peng.Precise prevention and control of flood disasters[J].China Water Resources,2021(23):11-14.
[43] 刘家宏，梅超，邵薇薇，等.城市排水防涝基础设施应对能力的三个阈值[J].水利学报，2022,53(7):789-797.LIU Jiahong,MEI Chao,SHAO Weiwei,et al.Three thresholds for the bearing capacity of urban drainage and flood control infrastructures[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2022,53(7):789-797.
[44] 中共中央办公厅.国务院办公厅关于推进新型城市基础设施建设打造韧性城市的意见[EB/OL](2024-12-05).https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202412/content_6991171.htm.General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Advancing the Construction of New Urban Infrastructure and Building Resilient Cities[EB/OL](2024-12-05).https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202412/content_6991171.htm.
[45] 刘家宏，梅超，刘宏伟，等.特大城市外洪内涝灾害链联防联控关键科学技术问题[J].水科学进展，2023,34(2):172-181.LIU Jiahong,MEI Chao,LIU Hongwei,et al.Key scientific and technological issues of joint prevention and control of river flood and urban waterlogging disaster chain in megacities[J].Advances in Water Science,2023,34(2):172-181.
[46] YUAN F X,LEE C C,MOBLEY W,et al.Predicting road flooding risk with crowdsourced reports and fine-grained traffic data[J].Computational Urban Science,2023,3:15.
[47] 虞畅，王云，宋明明，等.沿海城市产汇流特征及防洪排涝实践研究进展[J].人民长江，2025,56(12):80-87,104.YU Chang,WANG Yun,SONG Mingming,et al.Research progress on runoff generation-concentration characteristics and flood-waterlogging control in coastal cities[J].Yangtze River,2025,56(12):80-87,104.
[48] 毕佳蕾，钱纯纯，李琛，等.长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区洪涝治理对策研究[J].水利规划与设计，2021(11):20-24.BI Jialei,QIAN Chunchun,LI Chen,et al.Study on flood control countermeasures in ecological green integrated development demonstration area of the Yangtze River delta[J].Water Resources Planning and Design,2021(11):20-24.
[49] 王凯丰，张洪斌，力刚，等.城市洪涝韧性的研究进展及关键支撑技术综述[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54(11):77-88.WANG Kaifeng,ZHANG Hongbin,LI Gang,et al.Advances in urban flood resilience study and its key supporting technologies review[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2023,54(11):77-88.
[50] BAKHTIARI V,PIADEH F,BEHZADIAN K,et al.A critical review for the application of cutting-edge digital visualisation technologies for effective urban flood risk management[J].Sustainable Cities and Society,2023,99:104958.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrdr.2026.02.001
中图分类号:TU998.4
引用信息:
[1]梅超,刘家宏,王佳,等.极端天气频发背景下超大城市洪涝韧性提升探析[J].水利发展研究,2026,26(02):1-11.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrdr.2026.02.001.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3090600); 北京市科协决策咨询重点课题(bjkx202414)
2025-11-06
2025-11-06
2025-11-06